Air NZ Cup Preview - Waikato v Auckland

Until Thursday night, this was shaping up as a winner-take-all match with a playoff place the grad prize. Unless there are funny results on Friday Auckland's season is done but that won't mean Waikato gets handed a free pass to the semis.

VENUE & TIME: Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, Saturday October 24, 19.35 NZT.

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 132 – Waikato 35, Auckland 92, drawn 5.

LAST TIME: August 30, 2008 (Hamilton) – Waikato 34-13 Auckland.

WALKING WOUNDED: Both teams lost players to the All Blacks, with Waikato farewelling Stephen Donald and Brendon Leonard, both anticipated, and Liam Messam, whose selection came as a surprise and probably at the expense of Aled de Malmanche, who remains in the Waikato side. Auckland lost Jerome Kaino and John Afoa – no shocks there – and kept Joe Rokocoko, which should not have startled al but the most parochial Aucklanders. Otherwise the teams have been kept fairly well intact.

FORM: Waikato has been running hot winning its last five matches to get into a playoff position. Whatever happens, the Mooloos are alive when this match kicks off as they simply have to match whatever Hawke's Bay does on Friday. A Magpie bonus point therefore requires the same response from Waikato; as Waikato won the round-robin match between the two the Mooloos hold the tie-breaker. Auckland has won its last three but how the team responds to the loss of Kaino will be all-important; when he's played the Queen City lads have looked vastly better than when he's been absent.

WHO'S HOT: Jack Lam may be one of the most important Waikato forwards in this match, as his speed to the breakdown will be crucial if Waikato wants to get a roll on. Two old hands in the backline, Callum Bruce and Sosene Anesi, will be asked to dictate terms with sensible play as needed and attacking flair when possible. Auckland will need Peter Saili to put in the kind of effort Kaino has supplied in the last month, Taniela Moa to retain the sort of form he's displayed recently and keep his head when it gets tough and Ash Moeke to kick his goals, as any points will be crucially important.

WE THINK: We think Waikato will take the points here but that it will be tight and tense all the way so, if Waikato is chasing a bonus point to get into the top four, they might come up short. At this stage we'd give Waikato 5-10 points, no more.

TEAMS:

Waikato: 1 – Hikairo Forbes, 2 – Aled de Malmanche, 3 – Nathan White, 4 – Toby Lynn, 5 – Kevin O'Neill, 6 – Kent Fife, 7 – Jack Lam, 8 – Alex Bradley, 9 – Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 10 – Trent Renata, 11 – Dwayne Sweeney, 12 – Callum Bruce (captain), 13 – Jackson Willison, 14 – Tim Mikkelson, 15 – Sosene Anesi.

Reserves: 16 – Vern Kamo, 17 – Latu Talakai, 18 – Romana Graham, 19 – Jordan Smiler, 20 – David Bason, 21 – Save Tokula, 22 – Henry Speight.

Auckland: 1 – Tevita Mailau, 2 – Tom McCartney, 3 – Charlie Faumuina, 4 – Kurtis Haiu, 5 – Andrew van der Heijden, 6 – Peter Saili, 7 – Onosa'I Auva'a, 8 – Chris Lowrey, 9 – Taniela Moa or Auvasa Faleali'i, 10 – Ash Moeke, 11 – Atieli Pakalani, 12 – Jamie Helleur, 13 – Benson Stanley (captain), 14 – Joe Rokocoko, 15 – Paul Williams.

Reserves: 16 – Pat Leafa, 17 – Pauliasi Manu, 18 – Jay Williams, 19 – Hamish Paterson, 20 – Moa or Faleali'i, 21 – Gareth Arlidge or Daniel Bowden, 22 – Chay Raui.

REFEREE: Bryce Lawrence