Air NZ Cup Preview: Canterbury v Hawke's Bay

Why would you pick Hawke's Bay to win this match? The Magpies have not beaten Canterbury anywhere since 1982, not in Christchurch since 1968 and they lost a cracker of a game two weeks back. But then again, Southland hadn't won the Ranfurly Shield for 50 years until last week, and that happened at Christchurch as well.

VENUE & TIME: AMI Stadium, Christchurch, Friday October 30, 19.35 NZT.

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 52 – Canterbury 29, Hawke's Bay 21, drawn 2.

LAST TIME: October 15, 2009 (Napier) – Hawke's Bay 20-27 Canterbury (round 12).

WALKING WOUNDED: If you ignore the missing All Blacks, Canterbury is at full strength except for the loss of lock James Broadhurst, whose shoulder injury means Sam Whitelock steps up to the starting XV. Hawke's Bay, with Andrew Horrell returning to second-five instead of Sam Giddens, is at full strength.

FORM: Canterbury was always going to struggle against Southland after having a full complement of All Blacks on hand for a couple of big matches in the preceding fortnight but few expected the struggles to be as fruitless as they were last Thursday, when a solitary Stephen Brett dropped goal was all the red-and-blacks had to show for 80 minutes when they dominated possession and territory. Having battered away to no avail against Southland's competition-best brick wall defence, Canterbury now faces another very sound tackling unit – not to mention the Air NZ Cup scoring leaders. Hawke's Bay recovered from that huge effort against Canterbury to win at Whangarei but really did enough to get the five points and, for long stretches, battled rather than dominated. Still, they did all they could and in the end it was enough.

WHO'S HOT: After the huge downer of last week, Canterbury needs to regroup in a hurry. While conventional wisdom is that it's always easier to get up after a loss than come down from a big win, that applies more to an experienced side and Canterbury is a little thin here. With that in mind, one can imagine the pressure going on senior players and Isaac Ross, who was quiet last week, George Whitelock who left the field injured in the early stages and Casey Laulala will have a lot put on their shoulders. Brett, too, needs to be at his best and his kicking will be vitally important. On the other side there's no more experienced forward pack in the competition; Hikawera Elliot, who will want to play as he did two weeks ago, makes his 50th championship appearance and is the last of the Hawke's Bay eight to reach that mark. Karl Lowe has been in superb recent form and may well be the most influential loosie on the park while Matt Berquist, a lock for the scoring title and the most accurate kicker in the competition at 84 percent, will also play a huge role. Jason Shoemark and Israel Dagg are just two more real threats in the Hawke's Bay backline.

WE THINK: We think Hawke's Bay has too much to gain to lose this one – there's the unfinished business of a couple of weeks ago, several players who might have made the All Blacks have a point to make and the Magpies' goal at the beginning of the year was to win the title. We think they'll get that shot next week; our pick for the semi is Hawke's Bay by 10 points, possibly a little more.

TEAMS:

Canterbury: 1 – Andrew Olorenshaw, 2 – Ti'i Paulo, 3 – Peter Borlase, 4 – Isaac Ross, 5 – Sam Whitelock, 6 – Michael Paterson, 7 – George Whitelock (captain), 8 – Nasi Manu, 9 – Tyson Keats, 10 – Stephen Brett, 11 – Tu Umaga-Marshall, 12 – Tim Bateman, 13 – Casey Laulala, 14 – Sean Maitland, 15 – Colin Slade.

Reserves: 16 – Steve Fualau, 17 – Rodney Ah You, 18 – Ash Parker, 19 – Matt Todd, 20 – Willie Heinz, 21 – Ryan Crotty, 22 – James Paterson.

Hawke's Bay: 1 – Faka'anaua Taumalolo, 2 – Hikawera Elliot, 3 – Clint Newland, 4 – George Naoupu, 5 – Ross Kennedy, 6 – Michael Johnson, 7 – Karl Lowe, 8 – Thomas Waldrom, 9 – Chris Eaton, 10 – Matt Berquist, 11 – Jason Kupa, 12 – Andrew Horrell, 13 – Jason Shoemark (captain), 14 –Nick Thomson, 15 – Israel Dagg.

Reserves: 16 – Ash Dixon, 17 – Josh Keys, 18 – Matt Egan, 19 – Adam Bradey, 20 – Dane Shelford, 21 – Aayden Clarke, 22 – Richard Buckman.

REFEREE: Jonathon White