Air NZ Cup Preview: Wellington v Southland

One question that dominated all else in the build-up was how well Southland could recover from the massive high of winning the Ranfurly Shield last Thursday. If the Stags can get it right this match is there for the taking but we'll probably only know about 10 minutes into the contest.

VENUE & TIME: Westpac Stadium, Wellington, Saturday October 31, 19.35 NZT.

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 90 – Wellington 59, Southland 24, drawn 7.

LAST TIME: September 24, 2008 (Wellington) – Wellington 32-13 Southland (round 9).

WALKING WOUNDED: Wellington has chosen to start Piri Weepu at first-five rather than trust either of the two other regular No 10s named on the bench. Whether this move works will only be seen on the night but the Lions do look unbalanced on the bench. Southland suffered one major setback at Christchurch as David Hall wrecked his knee in the early going and the forecast is a nine-month rehab. While Hua Tamariki is a good replacement at No 8, it means the bench gets rejigged to fit a hooker in there and the balance is changed around.

FORM: Wellington comes into this match on the back of a five-match winning run but it is hard to pick too many commanding performances out of that lot. After beating a Southland team that made a complete hash of trying to play in the rain, Wellington then cleaned up the teams that finished 11th, 13th, 12th and ninth – hardly big guns but all gave the Lions a scrap for at least half the match. Southland, of course, made sure its season will be remembered for many years with its Shield win but victory in the semis – extra incentive would be provided if Hawke's Bay bowls Canterbury on Friday and the final could be at Invercargill – would mean the 2009 side will eventually take its place alongside the 1939 team as the finest ever fielded by the union.

WHO'S HOT: Wellington has not really impressed in many areas and the forwards, in particular, need to be far more committed than in recent weeks. Several have been guilty of bludging out in midfield looking for running chances without getting their hands too dirty, which is sure-fire death against the big Stags eight that operates on a one-in, all-in' policy. Victor Vito and Daniel Ramsey can be excused this criticism but not too many others. The biggest danger Wellington can pose to the competition's best defence is out wide in the form of Hosea Gear, but they have to get the ball to him in a timely fashion. Start at 1 and go through to 15 to name Southland heroes last week, but the biggest cheers were for Jason Rutledge, who has been one of the country's best hookers this year, locks Joe Tuineau and Josh Bekhuis, who should place Wellington's short lineout under all kinds of pressure this week, a tough loose trio and a steady backline that has, in Robbie Robinson, a talented young pivot who should guide them for many years yet.

WE THINK: If the Stags can come down from the Shield high and get back up for this match, they're good enough to win by 10 points. It's that recovery that is the burning question and, much as Southland in the final would please most fans around the country, our gut feel is that the job might be too tough. That said, Wellington won't win easily and, like last week, the longer Southland stays in the game the more you like their chances. We'll call it to Wellington by five points but will be watching with interest.

TEAMS:

Wellington: 1 – John Schwalger, 2 – Ged Robinson, 3 – Anthony Perenise, 4 – Jacob Ellison (captain), 5 – Daniel Ramsey, 6 – Victor Vito, 7 – Serge Lilo, 8 – Mathew Luamanu, 9 – Alby Mathewson, 10 – Piri Weepu, 11 – Hosea Gear, 12 – Shaun Treeby, 13 – Alapati Leuia, 14 – David Smith, 15 – Apoua Stewart.

Reserves: 16 – Dane Coles, 17 – Arden David-Perrot, 18 – Mark Reddish, 19 – Scott Fuglistaller, 20 – Fa'atonu Fili, 21 – Robbie Fruean, 22 – Daniel Kirkpatrick.

Southland: 1 – Jamie Mackintosh (captain), 2 – Jason Rutledge, 3 – Chris King, 4 – Josh Bekhuis, 5 – Joe Tuineau, 6 – John Hardie, 7 – Tim Boys, 8 – Hua Tamariki, 9 – Scott Cowan, 10 – Robbie Robinson, 11 – Tony Koonwaiyou, 12 – Jason Kawau, 13 – Kendrick Lynn, 14 – Matt Saunders, 15 – Glen Horton.

Reserves: 16 – Bayden Mitchell, 17 – Fai Mika, 18 – Dave Gannon, 19 – Dion Bates, 20 – Sonny Rangitoheriri, 21 – Seminar Manu, 22 – James Wilson.

REFEREE: Chris Pollock