The mathematics of a top four berth

One more round to go, and in the Rebel Sport Super 14, there are seven contenders left in the competition. Furthermore, we now have some certainties in the tournament.

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Unfortunately, with any championship comes a team that finishes last, and the Cheetahs will finish the season with the wooden spoon.

Equally, there are six more teams we must mention. They are – ranked from eighth to thirteenth – the Force, Blues, Highlanders, Lions, Stormers and Reds. These sides will play no further part in the season after next weekend.

All have contributed to a Rebel Sport Super 14 that has gotten better as the weeks have progressed. All of the sides, the Cheetahs included, have inflicted upsets and been integral to the competition, and in their final match of 2009, pride and test jumpers will be on the line.

But of contenders, what is the equation?

For the Bulls, they enter the final round in top spot. Only one bonus point will confirm them participation in the semi finals. A win against the Sharks will guarantee them a home final.

A loss could still see them hold a top four position, even if the Chiefs and Hurricanes win. Assuming the Bulls +66 P/D doesn’t change, the Crusaders would need to beat the Blues by 35 points to eliminate the Bulls from the race.

The Chiefs are only on one less point on 41 points. They have won eight of their last nine and look to be the form team of the competition. One bonus point will secure them their second semi final appearance in thirteen years, assuming that they are not heavily beaten, and that a team below them does not win with a huge score line.

However, beat the Brumbies and they secure home advantage. If the Bulls lose, the Chiefs will secure not only a semi final in Waikato, but a potential final in Mooloo country.

On the last two months form, generous odds would then be offered on a first Chiefs title.

Should they lose, a Crusaders or Brumbies bonus point win could see them overhauled.

The Hurricanes are in a surprisingly trickier situation. If they win in Brisbane, even without a bonus point, they reach the semi finals. If the Bulls or Chiefs lose, they will gain a home semi.

If they lose, then the Canes could be bumped out of the semi finals if two of the teams ranked fourth to seventh win.

And of course, let us not forget the defending champions. Even if the top three win, if the Crusaders win with a bonus point, they will haunt the remaining teams with their immense pedigree.

They do not often lose semi finals.

The Brumbies and Sharks both have difficult tasks, having to overcome form teams away from home. Even if they do this, it may not be enough to assure them presence in the finals.

As for the Waratahs, the last team with a mathematical chance, they will play the Lions, in what in theory seems the easiest assignment of all the top teams. But even with a bonus point win, they will need other results to go their way.

However lose, and they could potentially finish as low as ninth.

Finals candidates run home

Bulls: 1st - 42
Last match: v Sharks, Durban
Chiefs: 2nd - 41
Last match: v Brumbies, Hamilton
Hurricanes: 3rd - 39
Last match: v Reds, Brisbane
Crusaders: 4th - 37
Last match: v Blues, Auckland
Brumbies: 5th - 37
Last match: v Chiefs, Hamilton
Sharks: 6th - 37
Last match: v Bulls, Durban
Waratahs: 7th - 37
Last match: v Lions, Johannesburg