By the numbers: All Blacks set for first Test against South Africa
Here's what the numbers tell us ahead of kick-off
New Zealand arrive on the back of a 40-21 win over Ireland, a match in which they crossed for six tries and carried for 200 metres more than their opponents. The Springboks, meanwhile, ground out a narrower 17-10 win over Argentina in their last outing, a result built on defence and territory rather than attacking fireworks.
Line up New Zealand and South Africa's 2026 international averages side by side, and the contrast in style is clear.
- Points per match: All Blacks 40.3 vs Springboks 36.8
- Tries per match: All Blacks 6.0 vs Springboks 5.5
- Carries per match: All Blacks 177.7 vs Springboks 120.8
- Carry metres per match: All Blacks 1,085.4 vs Springboks 784.3
- Line breaks per match: All Blacks 11.0 vs Springboks 7.8
- Defenders beaten per match: All Blacks 33.0 vs Springboks 23.0
- Passes per match: All Blacks 261.3 vs Springboks 119.0
- Tackle success: All Blacks 89.5% vs Springboks 84.9%
The Springboks have the edge in the areas that tend to matter most on South African soil. They've been more accurate at the lineout this season (93.1% to New Zealand's 82.9%), marginally better off the top at scrum time (95.5% to 94.7%) and have kicked from hand far more often (31.5 times a match to New Zealand's 19.0), a sign of the territory-first approach they're likely to lean on again in Johannesburg.
Head-to-head: history favours the hosts
The All Blacks lead the all-time series 63 wins to 43, with four draws from 110 meetings, and average 37.4 combined points per match across the fixture's history. But home advantage has counted for a lot: South Africa have won 28 of their 54 home Tests against New Zealand, compared with 25 New Zealand wins on South African soil.
The most recent meeting also sits firmly in South Africa's favour. The Springboks won the last four encounters in the series prior to this one, and beat New Zealand 43-10 in their most recent clash in September 2025, a match in which the Boks won the collisions battle and conceded fewer turnovers (4 to New Zealand's 8) despite similar overall carry numbers.
Players to watch
All Blacks captain Ardie Savea (109 caps) leads by example at the breakdown, making 39 successful tackles and forcing a team-high three turnovers across his three Tests this season.
Fullback Ruben Love has been New Zealand's most prolific points scorer in 2026, racking up 31 points from three appearances and landing 15 of his 17 shots at goal (88.2%).
Winger Will Jordan has crossed six times this year, worth 30 points, and is also the all-time leading All Blacks try-scorer (51 tries).
Halfback Cam Roigard has been the busiest link man in the New Zealand squad, completing 278 passes from the base of the ruck this season.
Fullback Damian McKenzie has beaten a team-high 15 defenders from 35 carries, underlining his threat as a second playmaker in broken play.
Lock Josh Lord has claimed 11 lineout takes of his own, while hooker Codie Taylor has landed 17 successful throws and added a breakdown steal alongside his 109 caps.
For the Springboks, captain Pieter-Steph du Toit brings 98 caps of experience to the flank, making 36 successful tackles and arriving at the breakdown a team-high 51 times this season.
Centre Jesse Kriel is South Africa's top points scorer in 2026 with 15 from three tries, while hooker Malcolm Marx has landed 29 successful lineout throws, the most of any Springbok forward.
Number eight Jasper Wiese has beaten nine defenders and forced two breakdown steals, both team-high figures, and scrum-half Grant Williams has racked up 82 passes and 315 kicking metres from the base in his two outings.
Wing Cheslin Kolbe contributed 15 points, a try and five successful conversions from seven attempts, in his sole 2026 international so far, while lock Eben Etzebeth has made 15 successful tackles across his two appearances.
The numbers point to an All Blacks side with more attacking ball, more metres and a slightly sharper defensive tackle rate, but a Springboks team that will fancy its chances at the set piece and knows how to grind out results at altitude. History and home advantage both lean South Africa's way at Ellis Park, but New Zealand travel with the form and the underlying numbers to back themselves in Rugby's Greatest Rivalry.
